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Sic Semper Tyrannis

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Pop goes the bubble?

Okay, our strategy might be working. Oil fell again today - that's over ten bucks down in two days.

NEW YORK - Oil prices settled sharply lower for the second time in a row Wednesday, leaving crude more than $10 cheaper in just two days of frenzied trading and prompting speculation that the hard-charging market may be running out of steam.

Light, sweet crude for August delivery fell $4.14 to settle at $134.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier sinking as low as $132. The drop follows a $6.44 sell-off Tuesday, crude's biggest since the Gulf War.

…Analysts are unsure whether the drop represents a long-term shift in sentiment or simply a brief correction to crude's monthslong bull run. But the dizzying decline is prompting market veterans to ask how much support remains for such high prices.

"It's a sign that maybe the bull market is losing strength," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc.

…"I do expect this bubble to burst. Is this is it? It might be ... but I'm not ready to say so yet," analyst and trader Stephen Schork said.
Tell you what, if I were a trader, I’d sell off my oil interests pronto. I mean, maybe the price keeps falling, maybe it doesn’t, but this looks like a good time to sit back and count the profits you’ve made the last several months, instead of risking them all in what is an obviously volatile market.

In other words: Sell! Sell! Sell!